Integrated Bayesian network frameworks for modelling complex ecological issues

Ecological problems are typically multi faceted and need to be addressed from a scientific and a management perspective. There is a wealth of modelling and simulation software available, each designed to address a particular aspect of the issue of concern. Choosing the appropriate tool, making sense of the disparate outputs, and taking decisions when little or no empirical data is available, are everyday challenges facing the ecologist and environmental manager. Bayesian Networks provide a statistical modelling framework that enables analysis and integration of information in its own right as well as integration of a variety of models addressing different aspects of a common overall problem. There has been increased interest in the use of BNs to model environmental systems and issues of concern. However, the development of more sophisticated BNs, utilising dynamic and object oriented (OO) features, is still at the frontier of ecological research. Such features are particularly appealing in an ecological context, since the underlying facts are often spatial and temporal in nature. This thesis focuses on an integrated BN approach which facilitates OO modelling. Our research devises a new heuristic method, the Iterative Bayesian Network Development Cycle (IBNDC), for the development of BN models within a multi-field and multi-expert context. Expert elicitation is a popular method used to quantify BNs when data is sparse, but expert knowledge is abundant. The resulting BNs need to be substantiated and validated taking this uncertainty into account. Our research demonstrates the application of the IBNDC approach to support these aspects of BN modelling. The complex nature of environmental issues makes them ideal case studies for the proposed integrated approach to modelling. Moreover, they lend themselves to a series of integrated sub-networks describing different scientific components, combining scientific and management perspectives, or pooling similar contributions developed in different locations by different research groups. In southern Africa the two largest free-ranging cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) populations are in Namibia and Botswana, where the majority of cheetahs are located outside protected areas. Consequently, cheetah conservation in these two countries is focussed primarily on the free-ranging populations as well as the mitigation of conflict between humans and cheetahs. In contrast, in neighbouring South Africa, the majority of cheetahs are found in fenced reserves. Nonetheless, conflict between humans and cheetahs remains an issue here. Conservation effort in South Africa is also focussed on managing the geographically isolated cheetah populations as one large meta-population. Relocation is one option among a suite of tools used to resolve human-cheetah conflict in southern Africa. Successfully relocating captured problem cheetahs, and maintaining a viable free-ranging cheetah population, are two environmental issues in cheetah conservation forming the first case study in this thesis. The second case study involves the initiation of blooms of Lyngbya majuscula, a blue-green algae, in Deception Bay, Australia. L. majuscula is a toxic algal bloom which has severe health, ecological and economic impacts on the community located in the vicinity of this algal bloom. Deception Bay is an important tourist destination with its proximity to Brisbane, Australia’s third largest city. Lyngbya is one of several algae considered to be a Harmful Algal Bloom (HAB). This group of algae includes other widespread blooms such as red tides. The occurrence of Lyngbya blooms is not a local phenomenon, but blooms of this toxic weed occur in coastal waters worldwide. With the increase in frequency and extent of these HAB blooms, it is important to gain a better understanding of the underlying factors contributing to the initiation and sustenance of these blooms. This knowledge will contribute to better management practices and the identification of those management actions which could prevent or diminish the severity of these blooms.

Inactivation and structural changes of E. Cloacae and B. Subtilis Endospores during IR laser water treatment

IR radiation has been studied for micro-organism inactivation of bacterial spores on metal substrates [1] and on metal and paper substrates [2]. A near-point near infrared laser water treatment apparatus for use in dental hand-pieces was also developed [3]. To date water sterilisation research using a mid-IR laser technique is very rare. According to the World Health Organisation [4], examinations for faecal indicator bacteria remain the most sensitive and specific way of assessing the hygienic quality of water. Bacteria that fall into this group are E. coli, other coliform bacteria (including E. cloacae) and to a lesser extent, faecal streptococci [5]. Protozoan cysts from organisms which cause giardiasis are the most frequently identified cause of waterborne diseases in developed countries [6,7]. The use of aerobic bacterial endospores to monitor the efficiency of various water treatments has been shown to provide a reliable and simple indicator of overall performance of water treatment[8,9].The efficacy of IR radiation for water disinfection compared to UV treatment has been further investigated in the present study. In addition FTIR spectroscopy in conjunction with Principle Component Analysis was used to characterise structural changes within the bacterial cells and endospores following IR laser treatment. Changes in carbohydrate content of E. cloacae following IR laser treatment were observed.

A Bayesian network approach to modelling temporal behaviour of Lyngbya majuscula bloom initiation

Lyngbya majuscula is a cyanobacterium (blue-green algae) occurring naturally in tropical and subtropical coastal areas worldwide. Deception Bay, in Northern Moreton Bay, Queensland, has a history of Lyngbya blooms, and forms a case study for this investigation. The South East Queensland (SEQ) Healthy Waterways Partnership, collaboration between government, industry, research and the community, was formed to address issues affecting the health of the river catchments and waterways of South East Queensland. The Partnership coordinated the Lyngbya Research and Management Program (2005-2007) which culminated in a Coastal Algal Blooms (CAB) Action Plan for harmful and nuisance algal blooms, such as Lyngbya majuscula. This first phase of the project was predominantly of a scientific nature and also facilitated the collection of additional data to better understand Lyngbya blooms. The second phase of this project, SEQ Healthy Waterways Strategy 2007-2012, is now underway to implement the CAB Action Plan and as such is more management focussed. As part of the first phase of the project, a Science model for the initiation of a Lyngbya bloom was built using Bayesian Networks (BN). The structure of the Science Bayesian Network was built by the Lyngbya Science Working Group (LSWG) which was drawn from diverse disciplines. The BN was then quantified with annual data and expert knowledge. Scenario testing confirmed the expected temporal nature of bloom initiation and it was recommended that the next version of the BN be extended to take this into account. Elicitation for this BN thus occurred at three levels: design, quantification and verification. The first level involved construction of the conceptual model itself, definition of the nodes within the model and identification of sources of information to quantify the nodes. The second level included elicitation of expert opinion and representation of this information in a form suitable for inclusion in the BN. The third and final level concerned the specification of scenarios used to verify the model. The second phase of the project provides the opportunity to update the network with the newly collected detailed data obtained during the previous phase of the project. Specifically the temporal nature of Lyngbya blooms is of interest. Management efforts need to be directed to the most vulnerable periods to bloom initiation in the Bay. To model the temporal aspects of Lyngbya we are using Object Oriented Bayesian networks (OOBN) to create ‘time slices’ for each of the periods of interest during the summer. OOBNs provide a framework to simplify knowledge representation and facilitate reuse of nodes and network fragments. An OOBN is more hierarchical than a traditional BN with any sub-network able to contain other sub-networks. Connectivity between OOBNs is an important feature and allows information flow between the time slices. This study demonstrates more sophisticated use of expert information within Bayesian networks, which combine expert knowledge with data (categorized using expert-defined thresholds) within an expert-defined model structure. Based on the results from the verification process the experts are able to target areas requiring greater precision and those exhibiting temporal behaviour. The time slices incorporate the data for that time period for each of the temporal nodes (instead of using the annual data from the previous static Science BN) and include lag effects to allow the effect from one time slice to flow to the next time slice. We demonstrate a concurrent steady increase in the probability of initiation of a Lyngbya bloom and conclude that the inclusion of temporal aspects in the BN model is consistent with the perceptions of Lyngbya behaviour held by the stakeholders. This extended model provides a more accurate representation of the increased risk of algal blooms in the summer months and show that the opinions elicited to inform a static BN can be readily extended to a dynamic OOBN, providing more comprehensive information for decision makers.

Flow field investigation in a water treatment reactor using computational fluid dynamics

The hydrodynamic behaviour of a novel flat plate photocatalytic reactor for water treatment is investigated using CFD code FLUENT. The reactor consists of a reactive section that features negligible pressure drop and uniform illumination of the photocatalyst to ensure enhanced photocatalytic efficiency. The numerical simulations allowed the identification of several design issues in the original reactor, which include extensive boundary layer separation near the photocatalyst support and regions of flow recirculation that render a significant portion of the reactive area. The simulations reveal that this issue could be addressed by selecting the appropriate inlet positions and configurations. This modification can cause minimal pressure drop across the reactive zone and achieves significant uniformization of the tested pollutant on the photocatalyst surface. The influence of roughness elements type has also been studied with a view to identify their role on the distribution of pollutant concentration on the photocatalyst surface. The results presented here indicate that the flow and pollutant concentration field strongly depend on the geometric parameters and flow conditions.

CFD Simulation of turbulence promoters in a water treatment reactor

A new immobilized flat plate photocatalytic reactor for wastewater treatment has been proposed in this study to avoid subsequent catalyst removal from the treated water. The reactor consists of an inlet, reactive section where catalyst is coated and an outlet parts. In order to optimize the fluid mixing and reactor design, this study aims to investigate the influence of baffles and its arrangement on the flat plate reactor hydrodynamics using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation. For simulation, an array of baffles acting as turbulence promoters is inserted in the reactive zone of the reactor. In this regard, results obtained from the simulation of a baffled- flat plate photoreactor hydrodynamics for different baffle positions, heights and intervals are presented utilizing RNG k-ε turbulence model. Under the conditions simulated, the qualitative flow features, such as the development and separation of boundary layers, vortex formation, the presence of high shear regions and recirculation zones, and the underlying mechanism are examined. The influence of various baffle sizes on the distribution of pollutant concentration is also highlighted. The results presented here indicate that the spanning of recirculation increases the degree of interfacial distortion with a larger interfacial area between fluids which results in substantial enhancement in fluid mixing. The simulation results suggest that the qualitative and quantitative properties of fluid dynamics in a baffled reactor can be obtained which provides valuable insight to fully understand the effect of baffles and its arrangements on the flow pattern, behaviour, and feature.

Radioactive residues associated with water treatment, use and disposal in Australia

Water resources are known to contain radioactive materials, either from natural or anthropogenic sources. Treatment, including wastewater treatment, of water for drinking, domestic, agricultural and industrial purposes has the potential to concentrate radioactive materials. Inevitably concentrated radioactive material is discharged to the environment as a waste product, reused for soil conditioning, or perhaps recycled as a new potable water supply. This thesis, presented as a collection of peer reviewed scientific papers, explores a number of water / wastewater treatment applications, and the subsequent nature and potential impact of radioactive residues associated with water exploitation processes. The thesis draws together research outcomes for sites predominantly throughout Queensland, Australia, where it is recognised that there is a paucity of published data on the subject. This thesis contributes to current knowledge on the monitoring, assessment and potential for radiation exposure from radioactive residues associated with the water industry.

Muscle, skin and core temperature after −110°C cold air and 8°C water treatment

The aim of this investigation was to elucidate the reductions in muscle, skin and core temperature following exposure to −110°C whole body cryotherapy (WBC), and compare these to 8°C cold water immersion (CWI). Twenty active male subjects were randomly assigned to a 4-min exposure of WBC or CWI. A minimum of 7 days later subjects were exposed to the other treatment. Muscle temperature in the right vastus lateralis (n = 10); thigh skin (average, maximum and minimum) and rectal temperature (n = 10) were recorded before and 60 min after treatment. The greatest reduction (P<0.05) in muscle (mean ± SD; 1 cm: WBC, 1.6±1.2°C; CWI, 2.0±1.0°C; 2 cm: WBC, 1.2±0.7°C; CWI, 1.7±0.9°C; 3 cm: WBC, 1.6±0.6°C; CWI, 1.7±0.5°C) and rectal temperature (WBC, 0.3±0.2°C; CWI, 0.4±0.2°C) were observed 60 min after treatment. The largest reductions in average (WBC, 12.1±1.0°C; CWI, 8.4±0.7°C), minimum (WBC, 13.2±1.4°C; CWI, 8.7±0.7°C) and maximum (WBC, 8.8±2.0°C; CWI, 7.2±1.9°C) skin temperature occurred immediately after both CWI and WBC (P<0.05). Skin temperature was significantly lower (P<0.05) immediately after WBC compared to CWI. The present study demonstrates that a single WBC exposure decreases muscle and core temperature to a similar level of those experienced after CWI. Although both treatments significantly reduced skin temperature, WBC elicited a greater decrease compared to CWI. These data may provide information to clinicians and researchers attempting to optimise WBC and CWI protocols in a clinical or sporting setting.

Regional trade-offs between mine water and energy use : a water treatment case study

The mining industry faces concurrent pressures of reducing water use, energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in coming years. However, the interactions between water and energy use, as well as GHG e missions have largely been neglected in modelling studies to date. In addition, investigations tend to focus on the unit operation scale, with little consideration of whole-of-site or regional scale effects. This paper presents an application of a hierarchical systems model (HSM) developed to represent water, energy and GHG emissions fluxes at scales ranging from the unit operation, to the site level, to the regional level. The model allows for the linkages between water use, energy use and GHG emissions to be examined in a fl exible and intuitive way, so that mine sites can predict energy and emissions impacts of water use reduction schemes and vice versa. This paper examines whether this approach can also be applied to the regional scale with multiple mine sites. The model is used to conduct a case study of several coal mines in the Bowen Basin, Australia, to compare the utility of centralised and decentralised mine water treatment schemes. The case study takes into account geographical factors (such as water pumping distances and elevations), economic factors (such as capital and operating cost curves for desalination treatment plants) and regional factors (such as regionally varying climates and associated variance in mine water volumes and quality). The case study results indicate that treatment of saline mine water incurs a trade-off between water and energy use in all cases. However, significant cost differences between centralised and decentralised schemes can be observed in a simple economic analysis. Further research will examine the possibility for deriving model up-scaling algorithms to reduce computational requirements.

The use of new generation geosynthetics in water treatment

The importance of clean drinking water in any community is absolutely vital if we as the consumers are to sustain a life of health and wellbeing. Suspended particles in surface waters not only provide the means to transport micro-organisms which can cause serious infections and diseases, they can also affect the performance capacity of a water treatment plant. In such situations pre-treatment ahead of the main plant is recommended. Previous research carried out using non-woven synthetic as a pre-filter materials for protecting slow sand filters from high turbidity showed that filter run times can be extended by several times and filters can be regenerated by simply removing and washing of the fabric ( Mbwette and Graham, 1987 and Mbwette, 1991). Geosynthetic materials have been extensively used for soil retention and dewatering in geotechnical applications and little research exists for the application of turbidity reduction in water treatment. With the development of new materials in geosynthetics today, it was hypothesized that the turbidity removal efficiency can be improved further by selecting appropriate materials. Two different geosynthetic materials (75 micron) tested at a filtration rate of 0.7 m/h yielded 30-45% reduction in turbidity with relatively minor head loss. It was found that the non-woven geotextile Propex 1701 retained the highest performance in both filtration efficiency and head loss across the varying turbidity ranges in comparison to other geotextiles tested. With 5 layers of the Propex 1701 an average percent reduction of approximately 67% was achieved with a head loss average of 4mm over the two and half hour testing period. Using the data collected for the Propex 1701 a mathematical model was developed for predicting the expected percent reduction given the ability to control the cost and as a result the number of layers to be used in a given filtration scenario.

Emerging water treatment technologies for decentralised systems : an overview of selected systems suited for application in towns and settlements in remote and very remote regions of Australia and vulnerable and lagging rural regions in Sri Lanka

The primary purpose of this paper is to overview a selection of advanced water treatment technology systems that are suited for application in towns and settlements in remote and very remote regions of Australia and vulnerable and lagging rural regions in Sri Lanka. This recognises that sanitation and water treatment are inextricably linked and both are needed to reduce risks to environment and population health from contaminated water sources. For both Australia and Sri Lanka only a small fraction of the settlements in rural and remote regions are connected to water treatment facilities and town water supplies. In Australia’s remote/very remote regions raw water is drawn from underground sources and rainwater capture. Most settlements in rural Sri Lanka rely on rivers, reservoirs, wells, springs or carted water. Furthermore, Sri Lanka has more than 25,000 hand pumped tube wells which saved the communities during recent droughts. Decentralised water supply systems offer the opportunity to provide safe drinking water to these remote/very remote and rural regions where centralised systems are not feasible due to socio-cultural, economic, political, technological reasons. These systems reduce health risks from contaminated water supplies. In remote areas centralized systems fail due to low population density and less affordability. Globally, a new generation of advanced water treatment technologies are positioned to make a major impact on the provision of safe potable water in remote/very remote regions in Australia and rural regions in Sri Lanka. Some of these systems were developed for higher income countries. However, with careful selection and further research they can be tailored to match local socio-economic conditions and technical capacity. As such, they can equally be used to provide decentralised water supply in communities in developed and developing countries such as Australia and Sri Lanka.

Strength properties of composite clay balls containing additives from industry wastes as new filter media in water treatment

Pebble matrix filtration (PMF) is a water treatment technology that can remove suspended solids in highly turbid surface water during heavy storms. PMF typically uses sand and natural pebbles as filter media. Hand-made clay pebbles (balls) can be used as alternatives to natural pebbles in PMF treatment plants, where natural pebbles are not readily available. Since the high turbidity is a seasonal problem that occurs during heavy rains, the use of newly developed composite clay balls instead of pure clay balls have the advantage of removing other pollutants such as natural organic matter (NOM) during other times. Only the strength properties of composite clay balls are described here as the pollutant removal is beyond the scope of this paper. These new composite clay balls must be able to withstand dead and live loads under dry and saturated conditions in a filter assembly. Absence of a standard ball preparation process and expected strength properties of composite clay balls were the main reasons behind the present study. Five different raw materials from industry wastes: Red Mud (RM), Water Treatment Alum Sludge (S), Shredded Paper (SP), Saw Dust (SD), and Sugar Mulch (SM) were added to common clay brick mix (BM) in different proportions. In an effort to minimize costs, in this study clay balls were fired to 1100 0C at a local brick factory together with their bricks. A comprehensive experimental program was performed to evaluate crushing strength of composite hand-made clay balls, using uniaxial compression test to establish the best material combination on the basis of strength properties for designing sustainable filter media for water treatment plants. Performance at both construction and operating stages were considered by analyzing both strength properties under fully dry conditions and strength degradation after saturation in a water bath. The BM-75% as the main component produced optimum combination in terms of workability and strength. With the material combination of BM-75% and additives-25%, the use of Red Mud and water treatment sludge as additives produced the highest and lowest strength of composite clay balls, with a failure load of 5.4 kN and 1.4 kN respectively. However, this lower value of 1.4 kN is much higher than the effective load on each clay ball of 0.04 kN in a typical filter assembly (safety factor of 35), therefore, can still be used as a suitable filter material for enhanced pollutant removal.

Predictive models for water sources with high susceptibility for bromine-containing disinfection by-product formation: Implications for water treatment

This study examines a matrix of synthetic water samples designed to include conditions that favour brominated disinfection by-product (Br-DBP) formation, in order to provide predictive models suitable for high Br-DBP forming waters such as salinity-impacted waters. Br-DBPs are known to be more toxic than their chlorinated analogues, in general, and their formation may be favoured by routine water treatment practices such as coagulation/flocculation under specific conditions; therefore, circumstances surrounding their formation must be understood. The chosen factors were bromide concentration, mineral alkalinity, bromide to dissolved organic carbon (Br/DOC) ratio and Suwannee River natural organic matter concentration. The relationships between these parameters and DBP formation were evaluated by response surface modelling of data generated using a face-centred central composite experimental design. Predictive models for ten brominated and/or chlorinated DBPs are presented, as well as models for total trihalomethanes (tTHMs) and total dihaloacetonitriles (tDHANs), and bromide substitution factors for the THMs and DHANs classes. The relationships described revealed that increasing alkalinity and increasing Br/DOC ratio were associated with increasing bromination of THMs and DHANs, suggesting that DOC lowering treatment methods that do not also remove bromide such as enhanced coagulation may create optimal conditions for Br-DBP formation in waters in which bromide is present.

Ion exchange of sodium chloride and sodium bicarbonate solutions using strong acid cation resins in relation to coal seam water treatment

Coal seam gas production has resulted in the production of large volumes of associated water which contains dissolved salts dominated by sodium chloride and sodium bicarbonate. Ion exchange using synthetic resins has been proposed as a method for desalination of coal seam water to make it suitable for various beneficial reuse options. This study investigated the behaviour of solutions of sodium chloride and sodium bicarbonate with respect to exchange with Lanxess S108H strong acid cation (SAC) resin. Equilibrium isotherms were created for solutions of NaCl and NaHCO3 and an actual sample of coal seam water from the Surat Basin in southern Queensland. The exchange of sodium ions arising from sodium bicarbonate was found to be considerably more favourable than exchange of sodium ions from sodium chloride solutions. This latter behaviour was attributed to the secondary decomposition of bicarbonate species under acidic conditions which resulted in the evolution of carbon dioxide and formation of water. The isotherm profiles could not be satisfactorily fitted by a single isotherm model such as the Langmuir expression. Instead, two Langmuir equations had to be simultaneously applied in order to fit the sections of the isotherm attributable to sodium ion exchange from sodium bicarbonate and sodium chloride. The shape of the isotherm profile was dependent upon the ratio of sodium chloride to sodium bicarbonate in solution and there was a high degree of correlation between simulated and actual coal seam water solutions.